As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 87.9% in Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? — $624.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 87.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -1.7 pts; past month: +1.6 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 54.5% and 96.4%. It opened at 78.0% and last traded at 87.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 86.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 85.6% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.3% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 87.9% |
No is favored at 87.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 87.9% | -0.1 pts | $624.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 12.0% | +0.1 pts | $624.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$624.8K has been traded on this event in total, $77 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 38,476 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | Yes | 38,476 | $4.6K |
| Unfit-Coleslaw | Yes | 16,225 | $2.0K |
| Repulsive-Shackle | No | 14,034 | $12.3K |
| Bleak-Full | No | 13,338 | $11.7K |
| Lustrous-Parchment | No | 13,006 | $11.4K |
| Angry-Evaluation | No | 13,002 | $11.4K |
| Embarrassed-Pancake | Yes | 10,372 | $1.2K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 4,591 | $4.0K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 3,589 | $3.2K |
| Another-Parenting | No | 3,047 | $2.7K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:15 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.8% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 87.9% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.2% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.1% | $12 |
| Oct 22, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.9% | $38 |
| Oct 22, 08:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.2% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 01:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.2% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 87.9%. Next is Yes at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-iran-withdraw-from-the-npt-before-2027?via=bro
$624.8K in total volume, with $77 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 87.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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