As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 12.0% in Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? — $777.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 12.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since March 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 7.5% and 62.5%. It opened at 52.0% and last traded at 12.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 11.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 11.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 12.0% |
December 31 is favored at 12.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12¢ | 12.0% | +0.5 pts | $127.5K | 16.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$777.2K has been traded on this event in total, $56 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,800 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bleak-Full | No | 2,800 | $2.5K |
| Blaring-Surge | No | 1,166 | $1.0K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 1,035 | $124 |
| Cheery-Alert | No | 877 | $772 |
| Quizzical-Accelerant | Yes | 833 | $100 |
| Vapid-Mechanic | Yes | 832 | $100 |
| Gregarious-Fraction-Lion | Yes | 798 | $96 |
| Comfortable-Span | No | 784 | $690 |
| Raw-Steam | No | 761 | $670 |
| Judicious-Electricity | Yes | 707 | $85 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:22 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 09:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.4% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 02:49 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 01:42 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 06:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $6 |
| Oct 20, 04:06 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $44 |
| Oct 20, 02:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $44 |
| Oct 20, 02:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $44 |
| Oct 20, 02:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $76 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-launch-a-major-ground-offensive-in-gaza-by-october-31?via=bro
$777.2K in total volume, with $56 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 12.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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