As of October 24, 2026, 07:48 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.3% in Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? — $195.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.1 pts; past week: +0.4 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since March 06, 2026, No has traded between 86.0% and 99.0%. It opened at 90.5% and last traded at 97.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.7% |
No is favored at 97.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 97.3% | +1.1 pts | $195.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 2.7% | -1.1 pts | $195.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$195.7K has been traded on this event in total, $180 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,367 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wonderful-Tomography | Yes | 7,367 | $199 |
| Burdensome-Trooper | No | 2,262 | $2.2K |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 2,132 | $2.1K |
| Kosher-Curry | No | 1,888 | $1.8K |
| Windy-Western | Yes | 1,327 | $36 |
| Sugary-Stream | Yes | 1,060 | $29 |
| Unknown-Permission | No | 818 | $796 |
| Thunderous-Platelet | No | 800 | $778 |
| Glittering-Laparoscope | No | 800 | $778 |
| Impeccable-Fixture | No | 800 | $778 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $175 |
| Oct 23, 06:59 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.4% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 09:05 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.5% | $0 |
| Oct 11, 06:40 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $59 |
| Oct 11, 04:43 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.5% | $97 |
| Oct 05, 01:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.7% | $82 |
| Oct 05, 01:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 06:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.9% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.3%. Next is Yes at 2.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026?via=bro
$195.7K in total volume, with $180 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 97.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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