Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 80.0% in Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader? — $2.9K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
Yes
80%
A 80.0% price implies roughly a 80-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −5.0 pts30D +15.5 pts
Yes80.0%
No20.0%
Bid
79¢
Ask
81¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 15, 2026: 47.0% – 87.5% · Opened at 55.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?
Category
midterm, Politics, Speaker Election, house of representatives
Scheduled end
January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.9K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$16.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Yes — 80.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 80.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -5.0 pts; past month: +15.5 pts.

Since September 15, 2026, Yes has traded between 47.0% and 87.5%. It opened at 55.5% and last traded at 80.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202666.0%
Oct 18, 202687.5%
Oct 19, 202687.5%
Oct 20, 202679.5%
Oct 23, 202680.0%
Oct 24, 202680.0%
Oct 24, 202680.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Yes is favored at 80.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Yes80¢80.0%—$2.9K100.0%
No20¢20.0%—$2.9K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jim Jordan publicly announces that he is seeking to become the highest-ranking Republican in the United States House of Representatives for the Congress that convenes in January 2027, at any point between market creation and the date the House Republican Conference elects its top leader for that Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, a person will run to be the "highest-ranking Republican" if they are running for either Speaker of the House or, if that is not applicable, the top leader of the House Republican Conference (usually the Minority Leader). A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine, and third-party speculation or reports that Jim Jordan may run absent an announcement by him, will not count. Once a qualifying announcement has been made within the market's time frame, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether Jim Jordan subsequently withdraws, loses, or the position is filled by another person. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 577 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Piercing-FormationYes577$461
Daring-PirateNo314$63
Straight-WrinkleNo40$8
Embarrassed-Hill-FoldNo40$8
Creamy-GeologyNo40$8
Known-UseNo31$6
Speedy-Spine-RowingNo20$4
Spicy-NeighbourNo20$4
Writhing-RoundNo20$4
Apt-AntecedentNo20$4

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $241 at 68.2%BUY Yes — $91 at 63.0%BUY Yes — $38 at 66.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 21, 07:35 PM ETNoBUY19.0%$1
Oct 20, 08:43 PM ETYesSELL79.0%$24
Oct 20, 01:52 AM ETNoBUY26.0%$5
Oct 19, 09:47 PM ETYesSELL76.0%$30
Oct 19, 09:47 PM ETYesSELL76.8%$31
Oct 19, 09:46 PM ETYesSELL78.0%$31
Oct 19, 09:46 PM ETNoBUY15.5%$33
Oct 19, 09:46 PM ETNoBUY16.0%$3
Oct 16, 10:33 PM ETNoBUY25.0%$31
Oct 16, 10:32 PM ETYesBUY68.2%$241

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 80.0%. Next is No at 20.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-jim-jordan-run-for-republican-house-leader?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader??

$2.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Jim Jordan run for Republican House Leader?, according to Polymarket traders?

Yes, priced at 80.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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