As of October 24, 2026, 07:59 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31 at 6.5% in Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...? — $46.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, is priced at 6.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.5 pts; past month: -4.0 pts.
Since July 09, 2026, March 31 has traded between 5.5% and 25.5%. It opened at 19.5% and last traded at 6.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 6.5% |
March 31 is favored at 6.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31 | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $7.7K | 16.6% |
| December 31 | 3¢ | 2.8% | -0.1 pts | $36.5K | 79.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$46.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,594 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prickly-Signup | No | 1,594 | $1.5K |
| Tense-Precedent | No | 1,311 | $1.2K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 1,200 | $78 |
| Nutritious-Barium | Yes | 381 | $25 |
| Noted-Grit | Yes | 344 | $22 |
| Wealthy-Meadow | Yes | 300 | $20 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 290 | $19 |
| Discrete-Court-Tsunami | Yes | 202 | $13 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 150 | $140 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | No | 145 | $136 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $199 |
| Oct 22, 02:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $136 |
| Oct 21, 05:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 08:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 08:39 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.0% | $73 |
| Oct 21, 02:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 02:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $36 |
| Oct 21, 02:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $36 |
| Oct 21, 02:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 93.0% | $121 |
| Oct 21, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.8% | $134 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31 at 6.5%. Next is December 31 at 2.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-jordan-bardella-leave-the-national-rally-byptptpt-20260709012217842?via=bro
$46.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, priced at 6.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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