As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 26.5% in Will knots flip bitcoin core by ___? — $38.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 26.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.1 pts; past week: -0.1 pts; past month: -23.9 pts.
Since December 30, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 5.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 26.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 25.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 25.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 26.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 26.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 26.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 26¢ | 26.5% | -0.1 pts | $588 | 1.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 47¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart. Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes. A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.
Resolution source: https://coin.dance/nodes/all
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 63 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid-Headphones | No | 63 | $46 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 32 | $8 |
| Oval-Dozen | Yes | 25 | $7 |
| Loving-Hate | No | 9 | $7 |
| Pretty-Seaside | Yes | 5 | $1 |
| United-Welcome | Yes | 4 | $1 |
| Unrealistic-Burglar | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Worldly-Dump | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Honorable-Counterpart | Yes | 2 | $1 |
| Milky-Developing | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 03, 06:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Sep 03, 04:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
| Sep 03, 04:47 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.3% | $2 |
| Aug 08, 05:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $19 |
| Aug 05, 10:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.9% | $1 |
| Jul 21, 02:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.7% | $20 |
| Jul 21, 02:27 AM ET | No | SELL | 81.8% | $8 |
| Jul 08, 07:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.7% | $30 |
| Jul 04, 11:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.6% | $1 |
| Jul 04, 11:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.8% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 26.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-knots-flip-bitcoin-core-by-december-31?via=bro
$38.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://coin.dance/nodes/all.
December 31, 2026, priced at 26.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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