As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑$12.5B at 42.0% in Will Kraken's valuation hit __ by December 31? — $152.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑$12.5B, is priced at 42.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +4.0 pts; past week: -11.5 pts; past month: -28.5 pts.
Since May 19, 2026, ↑$12.5B has traded between 29.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 72.0% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.0% |
↑$12.5B is favored at 42.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$12.5B | 42¢ | 42.0% | +4.0 pts | $18.9K | 12.5% |
| ↓$8B | 37¢ | 37.0% | -0.5 pts | $12.8K | 8.4% |
| ↑$17.5B | 4¢ | 4.3% | +2.0 pts | $25.6K | 16.9% |
| ↑$15B | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.7 pts | $27.9K | 18.4% |
| ↑$20B | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $20.6K | 13.6% |
| ↑$22.5B | 3¢ | 3.5% | -1.1 pts | $10.6K | 7.0% |
| ↑$25B | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.1 pts | $20.5K | 13.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 62¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$152.0K has been traded on this event in total, $281 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kraken's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,087 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compassionate-Lawsuit | No | 1,087 | $630 |
| Present-Pine | Yes | 1,030 | $433 |
| Positive-Steam | Yes | 600 | $252 |
| Quizzical-Hire | No | 438 | $254 |
| Essential-Boar-Harmonize | No | 369 | $214 |
| Great-Barbeque | Yes | 200 | $84 |
| Piercing-Oregano | Yes | 190 | $80 |
| Outrageous-Afterlife | No | 170 | $99 |
| Teeming-Puppet | No | 165 | $96 |
| Insubstantial-Coffee | Yes | 161 | $68 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.1% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 09:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.6% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.8% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑$12.5B at 42.0%. Next is ↓$8B at 37.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-krakens-valuation-hit-by-december-31?via=bro
$152.0K in total volume, with $281 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.
↑$12.5B, priced at 42.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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