As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 4.5% in Will Ledger announce compensation or reimbursement for affected users by… — $11.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 4.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -0.5 pts.
Since October 09, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.0% and 29.5%. It opened at 29.5% and last traded at 5.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.0% |
October 31 is favored at 4.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.5% | -0.5 pts | $3.9K | 35.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Ledger is investigating reports of loss of funds from users who purchased hardware wallets through third-party reseller CryptoBillis. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ledger officially announces a plan to compensate, reimburse, or otherwise make whole any affected users for funds lost in this incident by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any form of qualifying compensation will count toward a “Yes” resolution, including but not limited to direct reimbursement, a dedicated victim compensation fund, or a formal arrangement with a third party (e.g., an insurer or the reseller) to cover user losses. A general statement of regret, or an offer to merely assist with investigation or asset recovery without a concrete compensation commitment, will not qualify. Replacement devices, discounts, or other goodwill gestures that do not cover lost funds will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be an official statement from Ledger or Ledger.com, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used to resolve this market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 475 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 475 | $21 |
| Frilly-Cruise | No | 417 | $398 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 383 | $365 |
| Essential-Diarist | Yes | 325 | $15 |
| Infamous-Daughter | No | 270 | $258 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 120 | $5 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Yes | 100 | $4 |
| Pure-Threat | No | 100 | $96 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 81 | $4 |
| Affectionate-Woman | No | 56 | $54 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 12:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $400 |
| Oct 22, 05:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $213 |
| Oct 21, 03:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Oct 13, 12:23 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 06:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 13, 06:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $0 |
| Oct 13, 06:09 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 13, 06:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $13 |
| Oct 12, 11:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $3 |
| Oct 12, 05:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ledger-announce-compensation-or-reimbursement-for-affected-users-by?via=bro
$11.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 4.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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