As of October 24, 2026, 08:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? — $36.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts; past week: +5.0 pts.
Since August 12, 2026, No has traded between 71.0% and 95.5%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 94.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 95.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.5% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | -6.0 pts | $36.3K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | +6.0 pts | $36.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.3K has been traded on this event in total, $400 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lionel Messi officially announces his retirement from club-level professional soccer by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that Messi is retiring or indefinitely departing from club-level professional soccer with the intention of not participating in any club competition. The announcement must come from Messi himself or official representatives thereof. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure from club competition intended to be effective within 12 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave club soccer in 2 years," nor "I will not play forever," would qualify). If Messi retires in a qualifying manner but maintains, renews, or announces his intention to participate in international soccer (e.g., for the Argentina national team), that retirement will still qualify. International soccer participation will have no bearing on this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the named individual or authorized representatives thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,329 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utilized-Shallows | Yes | 5,329 | $560 |
| Slim-Hake | No | 2,621 | $2.3K |
| Scientific-Trance | No | 1,917 | $1.7K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 883 | $790 |
| Vivacious-Meeting | Yes | 812 | $85 |
| CherryB16 | Yes | 675 | $71 |
| 0xc5bf03a3… | No | 539 | $482 |
| Bright-Bidet | No | 500 | $448 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 423 | $44 |
| Untried-Budget | No | 361 | $323 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:46 PM ET | No | SELL | 93.7% | $210 |
| Oct 23, 08:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:38 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 07:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $53 |
| Oct 23, 07:02 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $53 |
| Oct 22, 01:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-lionel-messi-announce-his-retirement-in-2026-20260812202203300?via=bro
$36.3K in total volume, with $400 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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