As of October 24, 2026, 08:04 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 63.5% in Will Lula announce nomination of a Supreme Court minister by...? — $33.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 63.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +9.5 pts; past month: +2.5 pts.
Since June 03, 2026, December 31 has traded between 34.5% and 82.5%. It opened at 82.5% and last traded at 63.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 59.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 63.5% |
December 31 is favored at 63.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 64¢ | 63.5% | -1.0 pts | $10.5K | 31.5% |
| October 31 | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $291 | 0.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 15¢ (bid 56¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$33.0K has been traded on this event in total, $44 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 09:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal). … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.gov.br/planalto
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 320 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Admirable-Samurai | No | 320 | $117 |
| Evil-Row | No | 209 | $76 |
| Impish-Tract | Yes | 200 | $127 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 188 | $119 |
| Villainous-Crook | Yes | 143 | $91 |
| Traumatic-Fiberglass | Yes | 103 | $65 |
| Immense-Hacienda | No | 97 | $36 |
| Crazykekbr | No | 85 | $31 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | Yes | 85 | $54 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 74 | $47 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 07:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 44.0% | $75 |
| Oct 23, 11:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 60.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 10:25 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 10:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:19 PM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:19 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 PM ET | No | SELL | 32.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 67.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:48 PM ET | No | BUY | 30.7% | $61 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 63.5%. Next is October 31 at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-lula-announce-nomination-of-a-supreme-court-minister-byptptpt-20260602182854659?via=bro
$33.0K in total volume, with $44 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 09:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.gov.br/planalto.
December 31, priced at 63.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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