Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 09:06 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 91.3% in Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? — $1.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
91%
A 91.3% price implies roughly a 91-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.8 pts7D +2.6 pts30D +3.1 pts
No91.3%
Yes8.7%
Bid
8¢
Ask
10¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 21, 2026: 75.2% – 97.4% · Opened at 92.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?
Category
France, Macron, Politics, referendum, French Election, French Elections
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$1.6K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$20.3K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 91.3%
Resolution source
https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 91.3%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +2.6 pts; past month: +3.1 pts.

Since August 21, 2026, No has traded between 75.2% and 97.4%. It opened at 92.0% and last traded at 91.2%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202696.2%
Oct 18, 202691.0%
Oct 19, 202691.3%
Oct 20, 202691.8%
Oct 23, 202692.0%
Oct 24, 202691.3%
Oct 24, 202691.2%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 91.3%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No91¢91.3%-0.8 pts$1.6K100.0%
Yes9¢8.7%+0.8 pts$1.6K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 8¢ / ask 10¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$1.6K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative. A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify. If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held. The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolution source: https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 466 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Celebrated-ResponsibilityYes466$41
Practical-WitNo258$236
Skeletal-LiverNo156$142
Harmonious-MozzarellaNo103$94
Second-Hand-CountrysideYes96$8
Starry-HiccupsNo53$48
Belated-GlueNo52$48
Straight-HuntingYes50$4
Grim-GarageYes21$2
Warlike-MoundNo20$18

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $195 at 88.6%BUY No — $100 at 96.9%BUY Yes — $52 at 8.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 10:03 AM ETYesBUY9.8%$1
Oct 21, 04:58 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$0
Oct 20, 04:54 PM ETYesSELL6.1%$1
Oct 19, 02:24 PM ETYesBUY12.4%$2
Oct 18, 09:58 AM ETYesSELL5.7%$1
Oct 18, 09:58 AM ETYesSELL8.2%$12
Oct 18, 09:58 AM ETNoBUY94.3%$19
Oct 18, 08:32 AM ETNoBUY88.6%$195
Oct 18, 08:32 AM ETNoBUY91.9%$18
Oct 18, 08:06 AM ETNoSELL88.0%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Macron call a referendum by December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 91.3%. Next is Yes at 8.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-macron-call-a-referendum-by-december-31-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Macron call a referendum by December 31??

$1.6K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Macron call a referendum by December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Macron call a referendum by December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 91.3% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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