Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? — $24.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
90%
A 89.5% price implies roughly a 90-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −4.0 pts30D +3.0 pts
No89.5%
Yes10.5%
Bid
10¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since November 05, 2025: 58.5% – 94.0% · Opened at 73.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?
Category
Mamdani, Politics, New York City, NYC Mayor
Scheduled end
December 31, 2030, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$24.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$10.8K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 89.5%
Resolution source
https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -4.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.

Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 58.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 73.0% and last traded at 89.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202658.5%
Oct 16, 202675.0%
Oct 18, 202685.5%
Oct 19, 202686.5%
Oct 20, 202686.5%
Oct 23, 202689.0%
Oct 24, 202689.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 89.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No90¢89.5%+0.5 pts$24.8K100.0%
Yes10¢10.5%-0.5 pts$24.8K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$24.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2030, 11:59 PM ET.

Zohran Mamdani has proposed raising New York City's minimum wage to $30 an hour by 2030. You can read more about that here: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a minimum wage of at least $30 an hour, effective by December 31, 2030, or earlier. The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated minimum wage into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify. The enactment of a policy that initiates a structured increase of the minimum wage to at least $30 an hour in NYC over the course of several years will qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution, so long as that policy explicitly outlines it will achieve that level by the stated date. Enactment of limited or temporary pilots which are not formally intended for citywide expansion (e.g., policies that explicitly cover only select boroughs, neighborhoods, or time periods) will not count. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 555 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Ample-InstanceNo555$497
Glittering-LaparoscopeNo540$483
Unique-PersonYes505$53
Warped-ProportionYes500$52
Crazy-FishmongerNo430$385
Long-Term-PetYes400$42
Sore-TortelliniNo362$324
Critical-LoxNo325$291
Belated-GlueYes255$27
Straight-HuntingYes240$25

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $65 at 65.0%BUY No — $52 at 86.0%BUY No — $49 at 87.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 04:06 AM ETYesSELL11.0%$0
Oct 21, 07:46 PM ETNoBUY88.4%$13
Oct 21, 07:46 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$13
Oct 20, 09:08 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$0
Oct 20, 07:12 PM ETNoBUY86.0%$43
Oct 20, 07:12 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$9
Oct 20, 07:12 PM ETNoBUY87.0%$44
Oct 18, 03:53 PM ETNoBUY86.0%$26
Oct 18, 11:02 AM ETYesBUY17.0%$5
Oct 17, 09:13 PM ETNoSELL83.0%$0

Related markets

More Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · 24H VOL $2.01M

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 71.5% · 24H VOL $649.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mamdani-raise-the-minimum-wage-to-30-before-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027??

$24.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2030, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.cityandstateny.com/policy/2025/02/mamdani-unveils-30-30-minimum-wage-push-part-mayoral-campaign/403015/?oref=csny-homepage-top-story.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.