As of October 24, 2026, 06:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 30.0% in María Corina Machado enters Venezuela by...? — $6.76M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 30.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -7.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: -14.5 pts.
Since July 28, 2026, December 31 has traded between 21.5% and 65.0%. It opened at 65.0% and last traded at 30.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 27.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 30.0% |
December 31 is favored at 30.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30¢ | 30.0% | -7.5 pts | $144.3K | 2.1% |
| October 31 | 11¢ | 11.3% | -7.8 pts | $104.9K | 1.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 31¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$6.76M has been traded on this event in total, $28.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,044 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tiny-Equality | No | 3,044 | $2.1K |
| Livid-Scorpion | No | 2,900 | $2.0K |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | Yes | 2,774 | $832 |
| Cloudy-Leaker | No | 2,609 | $1.8K |
| Wordy-Duel | No | 2,543 | $1.8K |
| Astonishing-Synthesis | Yes | 2,406 | $722 |
| Each-Summary | Yes | 2,303 | $691 |
| Acidic-Chaplain | Yes | 2,237 | $671 |
| Necessary-Clasp | Yes | 2,224 | $667 |
| Silent-Obsidian | No | 2,051 | $1.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.8% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.9% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 05:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 05:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $15 |
| Oct 24, 05:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.1% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.1% | $50 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 70.2% | $126 |
| Oct 24, 05:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.1% | $721 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 30.0%. Next is October 31 at 11.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mara-corina-machado-enter-venezuela-by-january-31?via=bro
$6.76M in total volume, with $28.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 30.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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