As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.5% in Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? — $1.80M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: +4.0 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.
Since October 17, 2025, No has traded between 23.5% and 94.5%. It opened at 65.5% and last traded at 89.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.5% |
No is favored at 89.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 90¢ | 89.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.80M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 10¢ | 10.5% | +3.0 pts | $1.80M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.80M has been traded on this event in total, $7.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 34,678 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flashy-Label | No | 34,678 | $31.0K |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 31,094 | $27.8K |
| Belated-Clothes | No | 30,042 | $26.9K |
| Sophisticated-Influx | Yes | 23,543 | $2.5K |
| Thankful-Allegation-Fahrenheit | Yes | 23,332 | $2.4K |
| Pungent-Washbasin | Yes | 20,460 | $2.1K |
| Recent-Eveningwear | Yes | 16,609 | $1.7K |
| Ancient-Kiwi | Yes | 15,904 | $1.7K |
| Cold-Execution | Yes | 11,209 | $1.2K |
| Same-Kidney | No | 10,400 | $9.3K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $188 |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $5.0K |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.0% | $54 |
| Oct 24, 02:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 01:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $34 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 10:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 07:04 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $92 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.5%. Next is Yes at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends?via=bro
$1.80M in total volume, with $7.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 03, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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