As of October 24, 2026, 07:51 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.7% in Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...? — $118.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +0.2 pts; past month: -0.8 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.9% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 2.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 3.6% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.9% |
December 31 is favored at 3.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 3.7% | +0.8 pts | $1.1K | 1.0% |
| October 31 | 3¢ | 2.6% | +0.1 pts | $407 | 0.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$118.5K has been traded on this event in total, $306 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed. Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran. In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 251 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glossy-Cashier | No | 251 | $241 |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 250 | $241 |
| Bountiful-Disposer | Yes | 246 | $9 |
| Jealous-Saffron | Yes | 105 | $4 |
| Grim-Garage | Yes | 42 | $2 |
| Straight-Hunting | Yes | 40 | $1 |
| Peaceful-Hockey | Yes | 30 | $1 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 23 | $1 |
| Decisive-Focus | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| 0x02991fd5… | No | 5 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.9% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:35 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 05:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.0% | $5 |
| Oct 11, 12:25 PM ET | No | SELL | 99.0% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 12:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 12:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.5% | $53 |
| Oct 11, 12:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $51 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.7%. Next is October 31 at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-mojtaba-khamenei-leave-iran-byptptpt-20260720003505489?via=bro
$118.5K in total volume, with $306 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 3.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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