As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 54.5% in Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027? — $2.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 54.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +18.5 pts; past week: +22.0 pts.
Since October 13, 2026, No has traded between 71.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 73.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 76.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 92.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 74.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 73.0% |
No is favored at 54.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 55¢ | 54.5% | -18.5 pts | $2.7K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 46¢ | 45.5% | +18.5 pts | $2.7K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.7K has been traded on this event in total, $732 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will retire from politics by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, retiring from politics means permanently leaving all political office, including his seat in the Knesset, the office of Prime Minister, any ministerial post, and the leadership of Likud. A qualifying announcement must state that he is retiring from politics or from political life, or that he will leave all of these positions and will not seek political office again. An announcement that he will step down from, or not seek, one or more of these positions while continuing to hold or seek another will not qualify (e.g., resigning as Prime Minister or as leader of Likud while remaining a Member of Knesset). An announcement will also not qualify if, as part of the same announcement, he states that he will seek or accept another political office, including the presidency of Israel. The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Netanyahu will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. Only definitive announcements will count. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 170 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 170 | $77 |
| Tangible-Exasperation-Grit | No | 119 | $65 |
| Unlawful-Humour | No | 105 | $57 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 56 | $26 |
| Internal-Hail | Yes | 32 | $15 |
| Royal-Dogwood | No | 30 | $16 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 22 | $12 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 20 | $11 |
| Golden-Panpipe | Yes | 20 | $9 |
| Shy-Fort-Coincidence | Yes | 17 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:32 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 45.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 54.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 04:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 63.0% | $13 |
| Oct 24, 04:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 67.5% | $78 |
| Oct 24, 04:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 01:59 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 01:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $28 |
| Oct 24, 01:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.9% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 01:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 82.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 54.5%. Next is Yes at 45.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-netanyahu-announce-his-retirement-from-politics-by-march-31-2027?via=bro
$2.7K in total volume, with $732 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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