Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 54.5% in Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027? — $2.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $732.
Leading outcome
No
55%
A 54.5% price implies roughly a 55-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +18.5 pts7D +22.0 pts
No54.5%
Yes45.5%
Bid
45¢
Ask
46¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since October 13, 2026: 71.5% – 92.0% · Opened at 76.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?
Category
Likud, Israel, Politics, netanyahu
Scheduled end
March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.7K
Volume (24h)
$732
Liquidity
$21.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 54.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 54.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +18.5 pts; past week: +22.0 pts.

Since October 13, 2026, No has traded between 71.5% and 92.0%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 73.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202676.0%
Oct 15, 202671.5%
Oct 16, 202692.0%
Oct 18, 202675.0%
Oct 19, 202674.0%
Oct 20, 202674.5%
Oct 23, 202673.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 54.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No55¢54.5%-18.5 pts$2.7K100.0%
Yes46¢45.5%+18.5 pts$2.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 45¢ / ask 46¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.7K has been traded on this event in total, $732 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will retire from politics by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, retiring from politics means permanently leaving all political office, including his seat in the Knesset, the office of Prime Minister, any ministerial post, and the leadership of Likud. A qualifying announcement must state that he is retiring from politics or from political life, or that he will leave all of these positions and will not seek political office again. An announcement that he will step down from, or not seek, one or more of these positions while continuing to hold or seek another will not qualify (e.g., resigning as Prime Minister or as leader of Likud while remaining a Member of Knesset). An announcement will also not qualify if, as part of the same announcement, he states that he will seek or accept another political office, including the presidency of Israel. The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Netanyahu will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. Only definitive announcements will count. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 170 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes170$77
Tangible-Exasperation-GritNo119$65
Unlawful-HumourNo105$57
Straight-WrinkleYes56$26
Internal-HailYes32$15
Royal-DogwoodNo30$16
Direct-ChainstayNo22$12
Oddball-PoisonNo20$11
Golden-PanpipeYes20$9
Shy-Fort-CoincidenceYes17$8

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $100 at 72.0%SELL No — $78 at 67.5%SELL No — $38 at 73.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:32 PM ETYesSELL45.0%$0
Oct 24, 05:06 PM ETNoSELL54.0%$11
Oct 24, 04:44 PM ETNoBUY63.0%$13
Oct 24, 04:43 PM ETNoSELL67.5%$78
Oct 24, 04:43 PM ETYesBUY33.0%$3
Oct 24, 01:59 PM ETNoBUY68.0%$17
Oct 24, 01:42 PM ETNoSELL72.0%$1
Oct 24, 01:41 PM ETNoSELL72.0%$28
Oct 24, 01:40 PM ETNoSELL73.9%$38
Oct 24, 01:40 PM ETNoSELL82.0%$20

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 54.5%. Next is Yes at 45.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-netanyahu-announce-his-retirement-from-politics-by-march-31-2027?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027??

$2.7K in total volume, with $732 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027? end?

The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 54.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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