As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 17.5% in Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...? — $488.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 17.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -12.0 pts; past week: -7.0 pts; past month: -14.0 pts.
Since November 12, 2025, December 31, 2026 has traded between 9.0% and 84.5%. It opened at 58.0% and last traded at 17.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 17.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 17.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 18¢ | 17.5% | -12.0 pts | $87.8K | 18.0% |
| October 31, 2026 | 2¢ | 2.3% | +0.3 pts | $174.3K | 35.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 17¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$488.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device. Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify. The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,317 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 2,317 | $1.9K |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | No | 2,106 | $1.7K |
| Pristine-Decoration | Yes | 2,068 | $362 |
| Light-Hygienic | No | 2,000 | $1.6K |
| Peppery-Capital | Yes | 1,000 | $175 |
| Delectable-Makeup | No | 982 | $810 |
| Stunning-Palace | Yes | 902 | $158 |
| Ancient-Blackberry | Yes | 852 | $149 |
| Vengeful-Netsuke | No | 766 | $632 |
| Stable-Administration | Yes | 600 | $105 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 10:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 10:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 19.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 10:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 09:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.5% | $1.5K |
| Oct 24, 09:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.6% | $38 |
| Oct 23, 11:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 10:44 AM ET | No | BUY | 98.1% | $39 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 17.5%. Next is October 31, 2026 at 2.3%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by?via=bro
$488.1K in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 17.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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