As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑$1.3T at 71.5% in Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31? — $1.34M traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑$1.3T, is priced at 71.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, ↑$1.3T has traded between 71.5% and 73.0%. It opened at 73.0% and last traded at 71.5%.
↑$1.3T is favored at 71.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑$1.3T | 72¢ | 71.5% | -1.5 pts | $2.3K | 0.2% |
| ↑$1.35T | 52¢ | 51.5% | -11.0 pts | $1.9K | 0.1% |
| ↑$1.4T | 34¢ | 34.5% | -10.0 pts | $409 | 0.0% |
| ↑$1.45T | 26¢ | 26.0% | -4.0 pts | $237 | 0.0% |
| ↑$1.5T | 10¢ | 10.0% | -3.5 pts | $125.6K | 9.4% |
| ↓$750B | 6¢ | 6.0% | — | $134.1K | 10.0% |
| ↓$800B | 6¢ | 5.5% | +0.5 pts | $112.1K | 8.4% |
| ↑$2.0T | 5¢ | 5.2% | -0.7 pts | $155.7K | 11.6% |
| ↑$1.75T | 5¢ | 4.5% | -2.0 pts | $89.9K | 6.7% |
| ↓$700B | 4¢ | 4.3% | -0.2 pts | $63.9K | 4.8% |
| ↓$600B | 4¢ | 4.3% | — | $61.3K | 4.6% |
| ↓$500B | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.1 pts | $63.8K | 4.8% |
| ↑$2.5T | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $59.5K | 4.4% |
| ↑$4.0T | 2¢ | 1.9% | — | $24.1K | 1.8% |
| ↑$5.0T | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.1 pts | $14.9K | 1.1% |
| ↑$3.0T | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $33.8K | 2.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 61¢ / ask 82¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.34M has been traded on this event in total, $1.8K of it in the last 24 hours, across 16 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 242 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden-Unemployment | No | 242 | $69 |
| Plastic-Larder | Yes | 163 | $117 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 158 | $45 |
| Grumpy-Invader | Yes | 100 | $72 |
| Reliable-Frown-Waterwheel | Yes | 80 | $57 |
| Unsung-Listening | Yes | 70 | $50 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 40 | $11 |
| Whimsical-Plaster-Celsius | No | 36 | $10 |
| Untimely-Mood | Yes | 24 | $18 |
| Advanced-Mailer | Yes | 22 | $16 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:47 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 02:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.8% | $54 |
| Oct 24, 04:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 15.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 10:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:44 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.7% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑$1.3T at 71.5%. Next is ↑$1.35T at 51.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-openais-valuation-hit-by-december-31?via=bro
$1.34M in total volume, with $1.8K traded in the last 24 hours across 16 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.
↑$1.3T, priced at 71.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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