As of October 24, 2026, 08:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 58.0% in Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State? — $3.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 58.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.5 pts.
Since September 29, 2026, No has traded between 49.5% and 74.0%. It opened at 55.5% and last traded at 58.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 58.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 58.0% |
No is favored at 58.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 58¢ | 58.0% | — | $3.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 42¢ | 42.0% | — | $3.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$3.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republican candidates both 1) win one or more Senate races in states won by Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential Election and 2) lose one or more Senate races in states won by Donald Trump with a margin of victory of 10 or more percentage points in the 2024 Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. A candidate will be considered to be a Republican if they are the nominee of or have a ballot-listed affiliation with the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. This market will consider all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 153 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 153 | $64 |
| Well-Off-Crayon | No | 100 | $58 |
| Creative-Wheel | No | 100 | $58 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 80 | $34 |
| Plump-Implementation | Yes | 36 | $15 |
| Golden-Panpipe | No | 31 | $18 |
| Agonizing-Exam | No | 20 | $12 |
| Creamy-Geology | No | 20 | $12 |
| Exotic-Towel-Stole | No | 20 | $11 |
| CompulsiveGambler | Yes | 18 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 08:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 04:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 56.8% | $57 |
| Oct 21, 03:18 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 47.0% | $0 |
| Oct 21, 01:56 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 43.0% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 01:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 01:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 01:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 57.0% | $9 |
| Oct 21, 06:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 06:30 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 20, 02:03 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 58.0%. Next is Yes at 42.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-reps-lose-senate-seat-in-any-trump10-state-and-win-in-a-kamala-state?via=bro
$3.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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