As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 97.7% in Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024? — $14.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 97.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.1 pts.
Since November 15, 2025, Yes has traded between 82.7% and 98.7%. It opened at 94.5% and last traded at 97.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.7% |
Yes is favored at 97.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 98¢ | 97.7% | — | $14.4K | 100.0% |
| No | 2¢ | 2.4% | — | $14.4K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 97¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.4K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".) A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.fec.gov/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 698 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pleasing-Elm | No | 698 | $16 |
| Stained-Cynic | Yes | 472 | $460 |
| Improbable-Responsibility | Yes | 460 | $449 |
| Kind-Nanoparticle | Yes | 375 | $367 |
| Evil-Row | No | 333 | $8 |
| Worse-Haven | No | 303 | $7 |
| Required-Saffron | No | 302 | $7 |
| Useless-Marker | Yes | 300 | $293 |
| Glum-Kitty | Yes | 260 | $254 |
| Well-To-Do-Prescription-Quail | No | 184 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 04:26 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.9% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 09:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.2% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 12:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.1% | $10 |
| Sep 19, 10:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.2% | $5 |
| Sep 19, 10:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.2% | $5 |
| Sep 18, 09:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.7% | $0 |
| Sep 16, 03:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 1.8% | $1 |
| Sep 13, 06:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 2.7% | $5 |
| Sep 09, 02:22 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 98.2% | $5 |
| Sep 08, 11:25 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.5% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 97.7%. Next is No at 2.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-a-seat-in-the-house-of-representatives-in-any-state-trump-won-in-2024?via=bro
$14.4K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.fec.gov/.
Yes, priced at 97.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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