As of October 24, 2026, 08:16 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 93.2% in Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024? — $14.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 93.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.4 pts; past week: -4.4 pts; past month: -5.3 pts.
Since November 15, 2025, Yes has traded between 75.8% and 99.7%. It opened at 80.5% and last traded at 93.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.2% |
Yes is favored at 93.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 93¢ | 93.2% | -4.4 pts | $14.9K | 100.0% |
| No | 7¢ | 6.9% | +4.4 pts | $14.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 94¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$14.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Vacant seats will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of a particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".) All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 647 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen-Car | Yes | 647 | $602 |
| Fluid-Clan | No | 345 | $24 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 196 | $13 |
| Well-To-Do-Prescription-Quail | No | 113 | $8 |
| Straight-Apprehension | Yes | 112 | $105 |
| Those-Skywalk | Yes | 110 | $102 |
| Functional-Heartthrob | Yes | 109 | $102 |
| Worse-Haven | No | 104 | $7 |
| Dead-Examiner | Yes | 104 | $97 |
| Required-Saffron | No | 101 | $7 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:13 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 97.1% | $1 |
| Oct 15, 06:24 AM ET | No | BUY | 4.0% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 10:02 AM ET | No | SELL | 3.1% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 10:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.9% | $100 |
| Oct 14, 09:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 06, 04:13 AM ET | No | BUY | 2.0% | $1 |
| Oct 05, 11:51 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 96.5% | $2 |
| Oct 05, 01:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 98.1% | $25 |
| Sep 20, 12:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 3.2% | $0 |
| Sep 18, 11:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 93.2%. Next is No at 6.9%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-a-seat-in-the-us-senate-for-any-state-trump-won-in-2024?via=bro
$14.9K in total volume, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 93.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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