Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 73.0% in Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? — $9.0K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
No
73%
A 73.0% price implies roughly a 73-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −1.5 pts
No73.0%
Yes27.0%
Bid
26¢
Ask
28¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 25, 2026: 70.5% – 83.0% · Opened at 83.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?
Category
Midterms, Politics, Elections, US Election, republicans, Senate races
Scheduled end
November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.0K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$22.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 73.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 73.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.

Since September 25, 2026, No has traded between 70.5% and 83.0%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 74.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202671.5%
Oct 17, 202671.5%
Oct 18, 202671.5%
Oct 19, 202676.5%
Oct 20, 202675.5%
Oct 22, 202673.5%
Oct 23, 202674.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 73.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No73¢73.0%-1.0 pts$9.0K100.0%
Yes27¢27.0%+1.0 pts$9.0K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,641 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Lanky-AudienceYes1,641$443
Weird-FreedomNo1,000$730
Simple-ViolationNo329$240
Messy-StringNo327$239
Quarrelsome-FilthYes250$67
Gaseous-TennisYes222$60
United-PremierNo210$153
Unselfish-Mineral-SundayYes200$54
Snappy-RoosterNo172$126
bakayo33 - 9934No125$91

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $262 at 75.4%BUY No — $225 at 72.0%BUY No — $184 at 73.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 22, 05:35 PM ETNoSELL71.0%$0
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETNoSELL71.0%$18
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETNoSELL75.4%$262
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY27.0%$4
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY26.1%$10
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 22, 05:31 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 73.0%. Next is Yes at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-any-safe-republican-senate-race?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race??

$9.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 73.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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