As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 73.0% in Will Republicans lose any "Safe Republican" Senate race? — $9.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 73.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.
Since September 25, 2026, No has traded between 70.5% and 83.0%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 74.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 73.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 74.0% |
No is favored at 73.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 73¢ | 73.0% | -1.0 pts | $9.0K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 27¢ | 27.0% | +1.0 pts | $9.0K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 26¢ / ask 28¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, the Republican party nominee fails to win one or more of the Senate races listed below. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The relevant races are the currently-scheduled United States Senate races in: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida (Special), Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Wyoming. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Candidates who run as independents or third-party candidates will not be considered to be Republicans regardless of affiliation or caucus decisions. In the event that the winner of an election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that election will not be considered for purposes of this market. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,641 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lanky-Audience | Yes | 1,641 | $443 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 1,000 | $730 |
| Simple-Violation | No | 329 | $240 |
| Messy-String | No | 327 | $239 |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 250 | $67 |
| Gaseous-Tennis | Yes | 222 | $60 |
| United-Premier | No | 210 | $153 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 200 | $54 |
| Snappy-Rooster | No | 172 | $126 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 125 | $91 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 05:35 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.4% | $262 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.1% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 05:31 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 73.0%. Next is Yes at 27.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-any-safe-republican-senate-race?via=bro
$9.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 73.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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