As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 98.7% in Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms? — $22.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 98.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past month: +0.1 pts.
Since January 13, 2026, No has traded between 53.0% and 99.0%. It opened at 53.0% and last traded at 98.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.7% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.7% |
No is favored at 98.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 99¢ | 98.7% | -0.1 pts | $22.9K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 1¢ | 1.4% | +0.1 pts | $22.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 1¢ / ask 2¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Republican party ceases to hold a majority in the United States House of Representatives at any point before polls open for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A majority in the House of Representatives means holding more than half of the currently seated voting members of the U.S. House at that time, excluding vacant seats. Ties do not qualify as a majority. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States House of Representatives Press Gallery (https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,579 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mediocre-Paradise | No | 1,579 | $1.6K |
| Single-Challenge | No | 885 | $873 |
| 0x6d6514eab960a4afa0ce9b6d2a60039dabc23781 | Yes | 500 | $7 |
| Illustrious-Convection | Yes | 435 | $6 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 373 | $5 |
| Quixotic-Selling | No | 341 | $336 |
| Recent-Fog | Yes | 299 | $4 |
| Gifted-Rancher | Yes | 250 | $3 |
| FrankyFourFingers | Yes | 204 | $3 |
| Deafening-Prayer | No | 169 | $167 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 10:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.9% | $0 |
| Oct 05, 11:04 AM ET | No | BUY | 99.2% | $1 |
| Sep 20, 02:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $3 |
| Sep 11, 05:43 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.8% | $1 |
| Sep 02, 10:01 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Sep 02, 09:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Sep 02, 09:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Sep 02, 09:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Sep 02, 09:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
| Sep 02, 09:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.4% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 98.7%. Next is Yes at 1.4%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-lose-house-majority-before-the-midterms?via=bro
$22.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pressgallery.house.gov/member-data/party-breakdown.
No, priced at 98.7% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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