As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 70.0% in Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? — $9.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 70.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +1.0 pts; past month: +23.5 pts.
Since May 27, 2026, Yes has traded between 42.5% and 91.0%. It opened at 76.0% and last traded at 70.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 70.0% |
Yes is favored at 70.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 70¢ | 70.0% | — | $9.9K | 100.0% |
| No | 30¢ | 30.0% | — | $9.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 69¢ / ask 71¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, in the 2026 midterm elections, Republicans win a gubernatorial or US Senate election in any state that was won by Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election but was not won by Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All Gubernatorial elections, and all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress, and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the winner, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant offices for which no election or special election to fill the office is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will not be considered. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member or governor was elected. If a member-elect or governor changes party affiliation, or vacates their office, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the person was elected. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party will be attributed to that party. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,410 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frozen-Car | No | 1,410 | $423 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 930 | $651 |
| Guilty-Cranky | Yes | 531 | $372 |
| Ringed-Desktop-Bow | No | 472 | $142 |
| Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet | Yes | 348 | $244 |
| Creative-Wheel | Yes | 220 | $154 |
| Unkempt-Mini | No | 167 | $50 |
| Well-Off-Crayon | Yes | 138 | $97 |
| Evil-Row | No | 122 | $37 |
| Corny-Machine | Yes | 114 | $80 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 07:02 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $42 |
| Oct 16, 04:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 16, 04:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.5% | $27 |
| Oct 16, 04:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 30.0% | $51 |
| Oct 16, 04:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 16, 04:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 12, 10:54 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 70.0% | $18 |
| Oct 11, 07:41 PM ET | No | SELL | 29.0% | $5 |
| Oct 09, 12:00 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $41 |
| Oct 08, 02:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $66 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 70.0%. Next is No at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-republicans-win-any-senate-or-governors-election-in-a-biden-trump-state?via=bro
$9.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 03, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Yes, priced at 70.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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