As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.7% in Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? — $22.22M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +1.1 pts; past month: +0.8 pts.
Since February 18, 2026, December 31 has traded between 3.1% and 46.0%. It opened at 46.0% and last traded at 4.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 3.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 3.1% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 3.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.7% |
December 31 is favored at 4.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5¢ | 4.7% | +0.2 pts | $2.61M | 11.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.22M has been traded on this event in total, $471 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 160,897 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illustrious-Spectacles | No | 160,897 | $153.4K |
| Striped-Pressroom | Yes | 106,521 | $5.0K |
| Better-Ford | Yes | 71,166 | $3.3K |
| Unfortunate-Pray | No | 65,000 | $62.0K |
| Cheerful-Ephemera | No | 54,726 | $52.2K |
| Broken-Dogwood | Yes | 46,086 | $2.1K |
| Major-Click | No | 45,000 | $42.9K |
| 0xf724e04d… | Yes | 42,487 | $2.0K |
| Exemplary-Citizen | Yes | 39,468 | $1.8K |
| Shimmering-Age | No | 23,972 | $22.9K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 05:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 05:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 05:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $36 |
| Oct 24, 02:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.2% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-june-30?via=bro
$22.22M in total volume, with $471 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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