As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 35.5% in Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...? — $154.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 35.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts; past month: -32.5 pts.
Since May 21, 2026, December 31 has traded between 20.5% and 82.5%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 35.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 24.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 35.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 35.5% |
December 31 is favored at 35.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 36¢ | 35.5% | — | $75.4K | 48.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 36¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$154.0K has been traded on this event in total, $71 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast, (48.589446° N, 37.831430° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Chasiv Yar will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 6,509 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Descriptive-Pug-Lumberman | Yes | 6,509 | $2.3K |
| Melodic-Giggle | No | 6,381 | $4.1K |
| Afraid-Shower | No | 3,486 | $2.2K |
| Demanding-Chopsticks | Yes | 2,781 | $987 |
| Far-Off-Poor | Yes | 2,260 | $802 |
| Tasty-Hatbox-Guilt | No | 2,222 | $1.4K |
| Sleepy-Council | No | 2,049 | $1.3K |
| Unusual-Scrim | No | 1,291 | $833 |
| Unfinished-Vintage | Yes | 1,290 | $458 |
| Wordy-Carp | Yes | 1,269 | $451 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 64.0% | $45 |
| Oct 23, 03:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $33 |
| Oct 23, 05:12 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $30 |
| Oct 23, 04:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 08:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 03:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 61.0% | $36 |
| Oct 22, 03:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 60.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 01:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 63.0% | $49 |
| Oct 22, 12:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 12:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 36.0% | $36 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 35.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-chasiv-yar-by?via=bro
$154.0K in total volume, with $71 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.
December 31, priced at 35.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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