Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 7.0% in Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...? — $971.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027
7%
A 7.0% price implies roughly a 7-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.0 pts
June 30, 20277.0%
December 311.6%
Bid
3¢
Ask
11¢
Spread
8¢
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Range since October 03, 2026: 6.5% – 26.5% · Opened at 26.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
Category
Ukraine Map, Geopolitics, putin, Politics, Russia, Military Actions
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$971.3K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$69.5K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027 — 7.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 7.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts.

Since October 03, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 6.5% and 26.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 7.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 20268.0%
Oct 18, 20267.0%
Oct 19, 20267.0%
Oct 20, 20266.5%
Oct 22, 202612.0%
Oct 23, 20268.0%
Oct 24, 20267.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

June 30, 2027 is favored at 7.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
June 30, 20277¢7.0%-1.0 pts$3.4K0.4%
December 312¢1.6%—$226.6K23.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$971.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,892 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Rash-DramaYes1,892$132
Proper-TectonicsNo1,700$1.6K
CompulsiveGamblerNo183$170
Unlucky-MezzanineNo100$93
Belated-GlueYes60$4
Known-UseYes33$2
Untimely-Shield-TroutYes20$1
Velvety-ConfirmationNo20$19
0x9ea397d1…No1$1
Merry-Bonding-PiccoloNo1$1

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $1.1K at 97.0%BUY No — $966 at 97.7%BUY No — $928 at 97.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 09:58 AM ETNoBUY90.9%$318
Oct 22, 01:03 AM ETYesBUY12.6%$100
Oct 22, 01:01 AM ETYesBUY9.1%$100
Oct 21, 11:08 PM ETYesBUY2.9%$10
Oct 21, 10:42 PM ETYesBUY1.9%$10
Oct 21, 06:33 PM ETNoSELL98.3%$98
Oct 21, 06:32 PM ETNoSELL98.3%$18
Oct 21, 06:31 PM ETNoSELL98.3%$18
Oct 21, 12:37 PM ETNoBUY98.8%$16
Oct 21, 10:53 AM ETYesBUY1.7%$1

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 7.0%. Next is December 31 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...??

$971.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

June 30, 2027, priced at 7.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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