As of October 24, 2026, 07:44 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 7.0% in Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...? — $971.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 7.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 6.5% and 26.5%. It opened at 26.5% and last traded at 7.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 12.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.0% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 7.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 7¢ | 7.0% | -1.0 pts | $3.4K | 0.4% |
| December 31 | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $226.6K | 23.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 11¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$971.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia militarily captures the entirety of Donetsk Oblast between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Donetsk Oblast will be considered captured when the entirety of the below-specified municipalities is simultaneously shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The relevant municipalities in Donetsk Oblast that must be simultaneously captured in their entirety are: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, Pokrovsk, Dobropillia, Oleksandrivka, Cherkaske, and Sviatohirsk. The boundaries of each municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within a municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this may still qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,892 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rash-Drama | Yes | 1,892 | $132 |
| Proper-Tectonics | No | 1,700 | $1.6K |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 183 | $170 |
| Unlucky-Mezzanine | No | 100 | $93 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 60 | $4 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 33 | $2 |
| Untimely-Shield-Trout | Yes | 20 | $1 |
| Velvety-Confirmation | No | 20 | $19 |
| 0x9ea397d1… | No | 1 | $1 |
| Merry-Bonding-Piccolo | No | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 09:58 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.9% | $318 |
| Oct 22, 01:03 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.6% | $100 |
| Oct 22, 01:01 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.1% | $100 |
| Oct 21, 11:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 2.9% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 10:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.9% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 06:33 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $98 |
| Oct 21, 06:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 06:31 PM ET | No | SELL | 98.3% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 12:37 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.8% | $16 |
| Oct 21, 10:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.7% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 7.0%. Next is December 31 at 1.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by?via=bro
$971.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 7.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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