Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 3.0% in Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? — $2.10M traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $80.
Leading outcome
December 31
3%
A 3.0% price implies roughly a 3-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +0.8 pts30D −2.2 pts
Bid
3¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 27, 2026: 2.1% – 50.5% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
Category
World, Politics, Military Actions, Kupyansk, Russia Capture, putin, Ukraine Map, Russia, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$2.10M
Volume (24h)
$80
Liquidity
$6.5K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 3.0%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 3.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.8 pts; past month: -2.2 pts.

Since May 27, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.1% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 3.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 20262.1%
Oct 16, 20262.2%
Oct 18, 20262.4%
Oct 19, 20262.2%
Oct 20, 20262.6%
Oct 23, 20263.0%
Oct 24, 20263.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 3.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 313¢3.0%—$148.9K7.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$2.10M has been traded on this event in total, $80 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast, (49.713460° N, 37.614763° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kupiansk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purpose of this market, areas separated from the main municipality through a darker grey line, such as in the southeast of Kupiansk (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/h-b99a52275d.png), will not count towards the municipality. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 19,261 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Finished-WindNo19,261$18.7K
Substantial-Incentive-VampireYes12,507$381
Fine-TroubleYes1,619$49
Glamorous-RegionYes1,129$34
Aged-DrumNo916$888
Tremendous-DivideYes899$27
Monstrous-DewYes759$23
0x327779de…Yes729$22
Evil-RowYes649$20
0x0b62dc4b…Yes607$19

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $85 at 97.0%SELL Yes — $37 at 5.0%SELL Yes — $34 at 3.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:39 AM ETYesBUY3.4%$1
Oct 24, 07:33 AM ETYesBUY3.4%$1
Oct 22, 01:30 AM ETNoBUY98.3%$7
Oct 20, 07:23 AM ETYesSELL1.5%$1
Oct 20, 07:23 AM ETYesSELL3.2%$34
Oct 20, 07:22 AM ETNoSELL97.0%$85
Oct 20, 05:28 AM ETYesSELL1.6%$1
Oct 20, 05:28 AM ETYesSELL2.8%$3
Oct 20, 04:50 AM ETYesSELL2.8%$17
Oct 20, 04:49 AM ETYesSELL1.5%$0

Related markets

More Politics

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro 83.8% · 24H VOL $2.01M

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia 71.5% · 24H VOL $649.0K

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 3.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-kupiansk-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...??

$2.10M in total volume, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 3.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.