Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 7.1% in Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...? — $367.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $297.
Leading outcome
December 31
7%
A 7.1% price implies roughly a 7-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +3.2 pts30D +3.0 pts
Bid
7¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
0¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since February 19, 2026: 1.8% – 84.0% · Opened at 60.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
Category
Ukraine Map, Politics, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$367.5K
Volume (24h)
$297
Liquidity
$4.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 7.1%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 7.1%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.2 pts; past month: +3.0 pts.

Since February 19, 2026, December 31 has traded between 1.8% and 84.0%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 7.1%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 20263.9%
Oct 18, 20263.8%
Oct 19, 20263.4%
Oct 20, 20268.2%
Oct 22, 20267.2%
Oct 23, 20267.1%
Oct 24, 20267.1%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 7.1%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 317¢7.1%—$294.9K80.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 7¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$367.5K has been traded on this event in total, $297 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, (48.990595° N, 37.805666° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Lyman will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,534 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Tempting-TellNo5,534$5.1K
That-PhysiologyYes3,000$213
Triangular-TulipNo2,844$2.6K
Motionless-DwellingYes2,340$166
Tedious-AccordanceNo1,877$1.7K
Vacant-CradleNo1,602$1.5K
Velvety-ConfirmationNo1,531$1.4K
Essential-DiaristYes1,245$88
Charming-GrapeYes1,245$88
Considerate-WireYes1,170$83

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $3.7K at 95.1%SELL No — $2.0K at 95.2%SELL No — $600 at 95.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:46 PM ETNoSELL92.8%$275
Oct 23, 04:00 PM ETNoBUY93.0%$3
Oct 22, 04:22 PM ETYesSELL7.4%$2
Oct 22, 08:57 AM ETNoSELL91.9%$28
Oct 21, 04:01 AM ETYesBUY9.1%$7
Oct 20, 11:45 PM ETNoSELL91.9%$109
Oct 20, 08:51 PM ETYesBUY8.3%$10
Oct 20, 08:50 PM ETYesSELL8.0%$0
Oct 20, 11:51 AM ETYesBUY9.3%$10
Oct 20, 10:47 AM ETYesSELL7.9%$5

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 7.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-lyman-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...??

$367.5K in total volume, with $297 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 7.1% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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