As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 2.7% in Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by...? — $146.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 2.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.1 pts; past week: -0.2 pts; past month: -9.0 pts.
Since May 27, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.6% and 50.5%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 2.7%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 3.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 2.9% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 2.8% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 2.6% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 2.7% |
December 31 is favored at 2.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3¢ | 2.7% | +0.1 pts | $35.5K | 24.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 2¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$146.2K has been traded on this event in total, $80 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Ternuvate, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47.8301° N, 36.1268° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Ternuvate will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,931 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Finished-Wind | No | 5,931 | $5.8K |
| Courageous-Polish | Yes | 4,480 | $121 |
| Demanding-Chopsticks | Yes | 1,312 | $35 |
| Wry-Elm | No | 371 | $361 |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 366 | $356 |
| Aged-Drum | No | 361 | $351 |
| Gregarious-Eating | Yes | 338 | $9 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 244 | $7 |
| Lighthearted-Sick | No | 202 | $197 |
| Flaky-Associate | Yes | 199 | $5 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 3.2% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 07:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 97.2% | $22 |
| Oct 21, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.7% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 02:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.0% | $39 |
| Oct 19, 12:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.6% | $10 |
| Oct 16, 08:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 16, 08:37 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.3% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 04:58 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 09, 02:42 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.5% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 2.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-all-of-ternuvate-by-february-28?via=bro
$146.2K in total volume, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.
December 31, priced at 2.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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