Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 43.5% in Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? — $99.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $5.1K.
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027
44%
A 43.5% price implies roughly a 44-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +6.0 pts
March 31, 202743.5%
December 3122.0%
Bid
42¢
Ask
45¢
Spread
3¢
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Range since October 20, 2026: 40.0% – 43.5% · Opened at 40.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$99.7K
Volume (24h)
$5.1K
Liquidity
$30.7K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027 — 43.5%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 43.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +6.0 pts.

Since October 20, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 40.0% and 43.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 43.5%.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

March 31, 2027 is favored at 43.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
March 31, 202744¢43.5%+6.0 pts$5.5K5.5%
December 3122¢22.0%+0.5 pts$76.3K76.5%
October 312¢1.7%-0.1 pts$17.9K18.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 42¢ / ask 45¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$99.7K has been traded on this event in total, $5.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.475882° N, 37.082566° E in Dobropillia, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,286 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
CompulsiveGamblerYes1,286$559
Melodic-GiggleNo1,194$674
Bossy-SlashYes680$296
Velvety-ConfirmationNo500$282
Known-UseNo180$102
Belated-GlueYes174$76
Ill-Fated-AlienNo100$56
Flamboyant-WarmingNo95$54
Unhealthy-Drive-OffsetNo81$46
Huge-LollipopYes75$33

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $730 at 67.5%BUY No — $656 at 97.8%BUY Yes — $616 at 40.6%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:04 PM ETYesSELL1.5%$0
Oct 24, 05:53 PM ETNoSELL56.0%$12
Oct 24, 05:30 PM ETNoBUY79.0%$5
Oct 24, 05:00 PM ETYesSELL21.0%$3
Oct 24, 04:34 PM ETYesSELL42.0%$2
Oct 24, 04:06 PM ETNoBUY98.3%$5
Oct 24, 03:05 PM ETNoBUY78.0%$2
Oct 24, 03:05 PM ETNoBUY78.0%$6
Oct 24, 03:05 PM ETNoBUY78.0%$1
Oct 24, 03:05 PM ETYesBUY23.0%$11

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 43.5%. Next is December 31 at 22.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-dobropillia-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...??

$99.7K in total volume, with $5.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture Dobropillia by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

March 31, 2027, priced at 43.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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