As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 16.5% in Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...? — $331.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 16.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts.
Since October 05, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 15.0% and 34.0%. It opened at 34.0% and last traded at 16.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 23.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 15.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 16.5% |
March 31, 2027 is favored at 16.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $78.1K | 23.5% |
| December 31 | 8¢ | 8.0% | -1.0 pts | $60.8K | 18.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 15¢ / ask 18¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$331.6K has been traded on this event in total, $202 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,723 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melodic-Giggle | No | 5,723 | $4.8K |
| Useful-Doorknob | Yes | 2,949 | $487 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Yes | 1,487 | $245 |
| Light-Bulb | Yes | 917 | $151 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 380 | $63 |
| Failing-Manhunt | Yes | 200 | $33 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 164 | $27 |
| Heartfelt-Image | No | 100 | $84 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 84 | $14 |
| CompulsiveGambler | No | 84 | $70 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:22 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 04:32 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $180 |
| Oct 23, 04:58 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 03:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $270 |
| Oct 23, 06:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $123 |
| Oct 23, 04:46 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 07:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $26 |
| Oct 22, 07:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 85.0% | $26 |
| Oct 22, 07:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 11:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $55 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 16.5%. Next is December 31 at 8.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-oleksiievo-druzhkivka-byptptpt-20260706174556069?via=bro
$331.6K in total volume, with $202 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, 2027, priced at 16.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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