Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 56.0% in Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? — $515.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $478.
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027
56%
A 56.0% price implies roughly a 56-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −4.5 pts
June 30, 202756.0%
March 31, 202728.0%
Bid
55¢
Ask
57¢
Spread
2¢
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Range since October 12, 2026: 51.5% – 59.5% · Opened at 51.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$515.3K
Volume (24h)
$478
Liquidity
$23.6K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
June 30, 2027 — 56.0%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 56.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -4.5 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 51.5% and 59.5%. It opened at 51.5% and last traded at 56.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202657.5%
Oct 16, 202658.0%
Oct 18, 202658.0%
Oct 19, 202659.5%
Oct 20, 202657.5%
Oct 23, 202656.0%
Oct 24, 202656.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

June 30, 2027 is favored at 56.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
June 30, 202756¢56.0%—$12.9K2.5%
March 31, 202728¢28.0%+2.0 pts$90.7K17.6%
December 3110¢10.0%—$198.2K38.5%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 55¢ / ask 57¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$515.3K has been traded on this event in total, $478 of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,207 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Experienced-GoodieYes3,207$1.8K
Velvety-ConfirmationNo1,100$484
CompulsiveGamblerNo1,087$478
Knotty-PompomNo701$308
Known-UseYes588$329
Recent-DuffelNo559$246
Jolly-LeaderNo430$189
Flamboyant-WarmingNo276$121
Silly-CoinNo266$117
Attentive-AlgebraYes250$140

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $1.2K at 61.3%SELL Yes — $335 at 57.2%SELL No — $267 at 89.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 07:11 PM ETNoSELL89.0%$24
Oct 24, 07:11 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$27
Oct 24, 07:11 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$23
Oct 24, 12:19 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$126
Oct 24, 07:49 AM ETNoSELL89.0%$23
Oct 23, 08:01 PM ETNoSELL43.0%$4
Oct 23, 08:00 PM ETYesSELL25.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:08 PM ETYesBUY11.0%$3
Oct 23, 05:08 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$237
Oct 23, 03:02 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$27

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 56.0%. Next is March 31, 2027 at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-orikhiv-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...??

$515.3K in total volume, with $478 traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

June 30, 2027, priced at 56.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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