As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 5.0% in Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...? — $453.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 5.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -1.8 pts.
Since June 25, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.7% and 14.5%. It opened at 14.5% and last traded at 5.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 4.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 7.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 7.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.8% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 5.0% |
December 31 is favored at 5.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $130.3K | 28.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$453.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Sloviansk Slov'yans'k-Vitka train station located on Tsentralna Vulytsia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the railroad station, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,688 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| That-Physiology | Yes | 3,688 | $183 |
| Pointed-Microlending | No | 2,688 | $2.6K |
| Bland-Caviar | No | 876 | $833 |
| 0x287b4224… | Yes | 629 | $31 |
| Violent-Going | No | 473 | $450 |
| Esteemed-Troop | No | 352 | $335 |
| Unnatural-Pup | Yes | 346 | $17 |
| 0xde6a40cc… | No | 251 | $239 |
| Splendid-Shin | Yes | 250 | $12 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 05:04 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.5% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 06:48 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $47 |
| Oct 20, 12:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.8% | $143 |
| Oct 20, 12:18 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.7% | $100 |
| Oct 20, 09:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.5% | $12 |
| Oct 20, 08:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 94.5% | $7 |
| Oct 19, 03:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.1% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 12:15 PM ET | No | BUY | 94.4% | $75 |
| Oct 18, 04:10 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.8% | $115 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-slovainsk-by-2027?via=bro
$453.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.
December 31, priced at 5.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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