Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 60.0% in Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? — $89.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $116.
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027
60%
A 60.0% price implies roughly a 60-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −2.5 pts
March 31, 202760.0%
December 3132.0%
Bid
57¢
Ask
63¢
Spread
6¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since October 03, 2026: 50.5% – 69.0% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$89.1K
Volume (24h)
$116
Liquidity
$44.0K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
March 31, 2027 — 60.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 60.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.

Since October 03, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 50.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 60.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202663.0%
Oct 16, 202663.5%
Oct 18, 202660.5%
Oct 19, 202660.5%
Oct 20, 202660.5%
Oct 23, 202660.0%
Oct 24, 202660.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

March 31, 2027 is favored at 60.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
March 31, 202760¢60.0%+1.0 pts$12.7K14.3%
December 3132¢32.0%+0.5 pts$27.8K31.2%
November 3013¢13.0%+1.5 pts$4.7K5.2%
October 314¢4.2%+0.5 pts$26.5K29.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$89.1K has been traded on this event in total, $116 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,202 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Usable-PorcelainNo7,202$2.9K
Pessimistic-AbdomenYes3,527$2.1K
Light-FrontYes3,276$2.0K
Neighboring-LacquerwareNo568$227
Timely-PhotoYes261$156
Writhing-RoundYes206$124
Unkempt-Privacy-BrunchYes145$87
Belated-GlueYes130$78
Silly-CoinYes112$67
Arctic-KickoffYes110$66

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Yes — $2.3K at 64.0%BUY No — $314 at 34.3%SELL No — $311 at 96.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 04:04 PM ETNoBUY96.2%$10
Oct 24, 12:14 PM ETNoBUY40.0%$10
Oct 24, 07:40 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$2
Oct 24, 07:34 AM ETYesBUY5.0%$2
Oct 23, 06:03 PM ETNoBUY97.5%$24
Oct 23, 05:37 PM ETNoSELL95.0%$27
Oct 23, 05:37 PM ETNoSELL95.4%$48
Oct 23, 05:37 PM ETNoSELL95.5%$57
Oct 23, 05:37 PM ETNoSELL95.5%$42
Oct 23, 05:37 PM ETNoSELL95.5%$57

Related markets

More Geopolitics

Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 60.0%. Next is December 31 at 32.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...??

$89.1K in total volume, with $116 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

March 31, 2027, priced at 60.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

Trade it on Polymarket

Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.

Sign Up on Polymarket

New here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.