As of October 24, 2026, 06:33 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 60.0% in Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...? — $89.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 60.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since October 03, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 50.5% and 69.0%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 60.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.0% |
March 31, 2027 is favored at 60.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 60¢ | 60.0% | +1.0 pts | $12.7K | 14.3% |
| December 31 | 32¢ | 32.0% | +0.5 pts | $27.8K | 31.2% |
| November 30 | 13¢ | 13.0% | +1.5 pts | $4.7K | 5.2% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.2% | +0.5 pts | $26.5K | 29.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$89.1K has been traded on this event in total, $116 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,202 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Usable-Porcelain | No | 7,202 | $2.9K |
| Pessimistic-Abdomen | Yes | 3,527 | $2.1K |
| Light-Front | Yes | 3,276 | $2.0K |
| Neighboring-Lacquerware | No | 568 | $227 |
| Timely-Photo | Yes | 261 | $156 |
| Writhing-Round | Yes | 206 | $124 |
| Unkempt-Privacy-Brunch | Yes | 145 | $87 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 130 | $78 |
| Silly-Coin | Yes | 112 | $67 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 110 | $66 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:04 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.2% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 40.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.5% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $27 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $48 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $57 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $42 |
| Oct 23, 05:37 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $57 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 60.0%. Next is December 31 at 32.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-capture-the-royal-cafe-alex-in-kostyantynivka-byptptpt?via=bro
$89.1K in total volume, with $116 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, 2027, priced at 60.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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