Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 64.5% in Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...? — $8.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $1.7K.
Leading outcome
December 31
64%
A 64.5% price implies roughly a 64-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +34.5 pts7D +37.0 pts
December 3164.5%
November 3061.5%
Bid
59¢
Ask
70¢
Spread
11¢
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Range since October 12, 2026: 14.0% – 65.0% · Opened at 14.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$8.4K
Volume (24h)
$1.7K
Liquidity
$4.8K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 64.5%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 64.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +34.5 pts; past week: +37.0 pts.

Since October 12, 2026, December 31 has traded between 14.0% and 65.0%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 65.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202633.0%
Oct 18, 202633.0%
Oct 19, 202630.0%
Oct 20, 202626.5%
Oct 22, 202626.0%
Oct 23, 202630.0%
Oct 24, 202665.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 64.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3164¢64.5%+34.5 pts$4.8K57.2%
November 3062¢61.5%+39.0 pts$3.6K42.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 11¢ (bid 59¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$8.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Bilozerske, Donetsk Oblast, (48.532023° N, 37.058608° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (Story Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375; Web Map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=9f04944a2fe84edab9da31750c2b15eb) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW Web Map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,033 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Frosty-StarboardNo1,033$367
Demanding-ChopsticksYes685$442
Shocked-NewsletterYes450$290
Ill-Fated-AlienNo432$153
Funny-ConnotationNo300$106
Silly-CoinYes250$161
Jumbo-CupcakeYes226$146
Puny-LibraryYes214$138
Ashamed-RosterNo148$53
Attentive-CrewmanYes100$64

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $333 at 75.9%BUY Yes — $230 at 23.7%BUY No — $222 at 76.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:10 PM ETNoSELL36.0%$18
Oct 24, 05:27 PM ETNoBUY27.0%$27
Oct 24, 05:17 PM ETNoBUY26.0%$8
Oct 24, 05:07 PM ETNoBUY23.0%$7
Oct 24, 04:11 PM ETNoBUY49.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:05 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$16
Oct 24, 04:05 PM ETNoSELL60.0%$30
Oct 24, 04:05 PM ETNoSELL44.0%$22
Oct 24, 03:34 PM ETNoBUY67.0%$34
Oct 24, 02:00 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$37

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 64.5%. Next is November 30 at 61.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-bilozerske-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...??

$8.4K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia enter Bilozerske by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 64.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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