Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...? — $151.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.
Leading outcome
December 31
14%
A 13.5% price implies roughly a 14-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −2.0 pts
December 3113.5%
October 312.2%
Bid
10¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
7¢
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Range since September 30, 2026: 8.0% – 16.5% · Opened at 16.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?
Category
Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$151.1K
Volume (24h)
$2
Liquidity
$423
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 13.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts.

Since September 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.0% and 16.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 15.5%.

DayClose
Oct 14, 20269.0%
Oct 15, 202610.5%
Oct 16, 202610.0%
Oct 18, 202614.5%
Oct 19, 202614.5%
Oct 20, 202614.0%
Oct 23, 202615.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 13.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3114¢13.5%-2.0 pts$1.5K1.0%
October 312¢2.2%—$1.3K0.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$151.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 289 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Jolly-LeaderNo289$250
Unnatural-PupYes214$29
Oddball-PoisonYes61$8
Required-HornYes50$7
Idolized-DecisionYes30$4
Attentive-CrewmanYes20$3
Burdensome-TogaNo20$17
Plump-ImplementationNo16$14
0xe7a160de…No14$12
Ringed-LaparoscopeNo14$12

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $229 at 79.2%SELL No — $154 at 90.4%BUY No — $116 at 75.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:20 AM ETNoBUY88.0%$2
Oct 18, 08:31 PM ETNoBUY98.7%$20
Oct 18, 10:55 AM ETYesSELL8.2%$9
Oct 18, 07:31 AM ETYesBUY16.4%$1
Oct 18, 07:31 AM ETNoBUY60.0%$3
Oct 18, 07:31 AM ETYesSELL5.1%$1
Oct 18, 07:23 AM ETYesBUY10.0%$1
Oct 18, 07:22 AM ETYesBUY4.5%$1
Oct 17, 06:41 AM ETNoSELL86.0%$2
Oct 17, 06:41 AM ETNoBUY90.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. Next is October 31 at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-havrylivka-by-february-28?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...??

$151.1K in total volume, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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