As of October 24, 2026, 07:49 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...? — $151.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, December 31 has traded between 8.0% and 16.5%. It opened at 16.5% and last traded at 15.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 9.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 10.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 10.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 14.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 15.5% |
December 31 is favored at 13.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14¢ | 13.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.5K | 1.0% |
| October 31 | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $1.3K | 0.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$151.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, (48.072788° N, 36.523524° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 289 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jolly-Leader | No | 289 | $250 |
| Unnatural-Pup | Yes | 214 | $29 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 61 | $8 |
| Required-Horn | Yes | 50 | $7 |
| Idolized-Decision | Yes | 30 | $4 |
| Attentive-Crewman | Yes | 20 | $3 |
| Burdensome-Toga | No | 20 | $17 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 16 | $14 |
| 0xe7a160de… | No | 14 | $12 |
| Ringed-Laparoscope | No | 14 | $12 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:20 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 08:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 98.7% | $20 |
| Oct 18, 10:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.2% | $9 |
| Oct 18, 07:31 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.4% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 07:31 AM ET | No | BUY | 60.0% | $3 |
| Oct 18, 07:31 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.1% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 07:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 07:22 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 06:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 86.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 06:41 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. Next is October 31 at 2.2%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-havrylivka-by-february-28?via=bro
$151.1K in total volume, with $2 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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