Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 5.7% in Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...? — $239.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $236.
Leading outcome
October 31
6%
A 5.7% price implies roughly a 6-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.4 pts7D −3.9 pts30D −28.3 pts
Bid
5¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since August 26, 2026: 6.6% – 50.0% · Opened at 50.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?
Category
Politics, Ukraine Map, Geopolitics
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$239.4K
Volume (24h)
$236
Liquidity
$2.9K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 5.7%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 5.7%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: -3.9 pts; past month: -28.3 pts.

Since August 26, 2026, October 31 has traded between 6.6% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 8.5%.

DayClose
Oct 12, 202610.1%
Oct 13, 202611.2%
Oct 15, 20267.5%
Oct 16, 20266.6%
Oct 18, 20267.2%
Oct 19, 20267.0%
Oct 20, 20268.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 5.7%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 316¢5.7%-0.4 pts$4.3K1.8%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 5¢ / ask 6¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$239.4K has been traded on this event in total, $236 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykhailivka, Sumy Oblast, (50.797758° N, 35.315210° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,089 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Ill-Fated-AlienNo1,089$1.0K
Belated-GlueYes554$31
Grim-GarageYes344$19
Unnatural-PupYes85$5
Evil-RowYes70$4
Afraid-AluminiumYes60$3
Adventurous-Democrat-PickaxeYes50$3
Plastic-DuckYes30$2
Squiggly-PorcelainNo30$28
Poor-TavernNo30$28

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $392 at 91.7%SELL No — $200 at 91.4%BUY No — $144 at 90.8%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:42 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$2
Oct 24, 01:41 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:41 AM ETYesSELL5.0%$2
Oct 24, 01:31 AM ETNoSELL92.8%$1
Oct 23, 08:46 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$3
Oct 23, 02:07 AM ETYesSELL6.3%$6
Oct 21, 10:08 AM ETYesSELL8.3%$2
Oct 21, 10:07 AM ETNoBUY91.7%$392
Oct 21, 10:07 AM ETNoBUY92.5%$28
Oct 21, 10:07 AM ETNoBUY91.8%$28

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 5.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-mykhailivka-by-april-30?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...??

$239.4K in total volume, with $236 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 5.7% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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