Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 77.5% in Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...? — $30.3K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $7.
Leading outcome
December 31
78%
A 77.5% price implies roughly a 78-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +1.0 pts7D −1.5 pts30D −7.0 pts
December 3177.5%
October 3110.5%
Bid
77¢
Ask
78¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since September 02, 2026: 74.5% – 94.0% · Opened at 85.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$30.3K
Volume (24h)
$7
Liquidity
$13.5K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
December 31 — 77.5%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 77.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: -1.5 pts; past month: -7.0 pts.

Since September 02, 2026, December 31 has traded between 74.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 85.0% and last traded at 76.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202685.5%
Oct 17, 202679.0%
Oct 18, 202681.5%
Oct 19, 202681.5%
Oct 20, 202680.5%
Oct 22, 202676.0%
Oct 23, 202676.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 77.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3178¢77.5%+1.0 pts$4.7K15.4%
October 3110¢10.5%+0.5 pts$17.4K57.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 77¢ / ask 78¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$30.3K has been traded on this event in total, $7 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,049 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Demanding-ChopsticksYes1,049$813
Neighboring-LacquerwareNo982$221
Light-FrontNo485$109
Scarce-FootnoteNo438$98
Silly-CoinYes335$260
Scared-AdministratorYes300$232
Shocked-NewsletterYes225$174
Honorable-StatisticsNo130$29
Belated-GlueYes110$85
Infatuated-NunYes60$46

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $342 at 75.8%BUY Yes — $246 at 83.2%BUY No — $159 at 77.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:23 PM ETYesSELL9.0%$1
Oct 22, 08:00 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$3
Oct 22, 06:50 PM ETNoBUY24.0%$1
Oct 22, 02:03 AM ETYesBUY13.0%$5
Oct 22, 12:18 AM ETYesBUY77.0%$6
Oct 21, 11:58 PM ETYesSELL8.0%$1
Oct 21, 11:58 PM ETYesBUY13.9%$50
Oct 21, 11:58 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$4
Oct 21, 11:58 PM ETYesBUY14.1%$15
Oct 21, 10:41 AM ETNoBUY89.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 77.5%. Next is October 31 at 10.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-oleksiievo-druzhkivka-again-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...??

$30.3K in total volume, with $7 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka again by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 77.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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