Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Russia enter Stavky by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 13.5% in Will Russia enter Stavky by...? — $71.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
December 31
14%
A 13.5% price implies roughly a 14-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
30D −15.0 pts
Bid
10¢
Ask
17¢
Spread
7¢
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Range since September 22, 2026: 13.0% – 29.0% · Opened at 29.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
Category
Geopolitics, Ukraine Map
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$71.2K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$298
Markets
1
Leading outcome
December 31 — 13.5%
Resolution source
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 13.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past month: -15.0 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, December 31 has traded between 13.0% and 29.0%. It opened at 29.0% and last traded at 13.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202613.0%
Oct 18, 202613.5%
Oct 19, 202613.5%
Oct 20, 202613.5%
Oct 22, 202613.5%
Oct 23, 202613.5%
Oct 24, 202613.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31 is favored at 13.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 3114¢13.5%—$3150.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 17¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$71.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 150 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Ill-Fated-AlienNo150$130
Known-UseYes120$16
Unnatural-PupYes60$8
Squiggly-PorcelainNo15$13
Plump-ImplementationNo15$13

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $92 at 77.0%BUY No — $23 at 76.0%BUY No — $21 at 71.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 15, 05:02 AM ETNoBUY86.0%$13
Oct 05, 06:50 AM ETYesBUY15.0%$9
Oct 02, 06:02 AM ETYesSELL15.0%$4
Sep 26, 11:57 AM ETNoBUY77.0%$92
Sep 26, 11:57 AM ETNoBUY76.0%$23
Sep 25, 06:22 PM ETYesBUY26.0%$8
Sep 22, 11:55 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$21

Related markets

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Russia enter Stavky by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-enter-stavky-by-june-30?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Russia enter Stavky by...??

$71.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Russia enter Stavky by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Russia enter Stavky by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, priced at 13.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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