As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 4.5% in Will Russia invade a NATO country by...? — $5.54M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 4.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 4.5% and 50.0%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 4.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 5.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 4.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $438.5K | 7.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.54M has been traded on this event in total, $9.9K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 84,357 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-Mist-Forelimb | Yes | 84,357 | $3.8K |
| Major-Click | No | 50,000 | $47.8K |
| Shallow-Thyme-Rally | Yes | 48,922 | $2.2K |
| Stable-Fog | No | 32,392 | $30.9K |
| Unfortunate-Pray | No | 30,000 | $28.6K |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 29,021 | $27.7K |
| Burly-Temperature | No | 28,160 | $26.9K |
| Velvety-Relief | Yes | 21,000 | $945 |
| Exotic-Prize | No | 20,000 | $19.1K |
| Subdued-Lane | Yes | 19,649 | $884 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $138 |
| Oct 24, 12:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $95 |
| Oct 24, 11:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $6.0K |
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 10:56 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 04:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 04:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:59 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $11.4K |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-a-nato-country-in-2025?via=bro
$5.54M in total volume, with $9.9K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2026, priced at 4.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.