As of October 24, 2026, 07:45 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 at 20.0% in Will Russia invade another country by...? — $634.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2027, is priced at 20.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: +1.5 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, December 31, 2027 has traded between 11.5% and 21.5%. It opened at 14.0% and last traded at 20.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 18.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 19.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 21.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 20.0% |
December 31, 2027 is favored at 20.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 20¢ | 20.0% | -1.5 pts | $5.7K | 0.9% |
| December 31, 2026 | 5¢ | 5.0% | — | $628.7K | 99.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 19¢ / ask 21¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$634.4K has been traded on this event in total, $301 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 928 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turbulent-Nation | No | 928 | $743 |
| Subdued-Lane | Yes | 693 | $139 |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 550 | $440 |
| Gracious-Gammaray | Yes | 420 | $84 |
| Female-Fourths | Yes | 265 | $53 |
| Content-Idea | Yes | 252 | $50 |
| Enormous-Fluke | No | 222 | $178 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 217 | $43 |
| Failing-Manhunt | No | 200 | $160 |
| Fearful-Independence | No | 175 | $140 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.9% | $281 |
| Oct 24, 04:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 78.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 06:58 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 09:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 08:52 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $235 |
| Oct 23, 08:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $32 |
| Oct 23, 07:31 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $470 |
| Oct 23, 05:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 94.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 02:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2027 at 20.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 5.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-russia-invade-another-country-in-2026?via=bro
$634.4K in total volume, with $301 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, 2027, priced at 20.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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