As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price June 30, 2027 at 40.5% in Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...? — $4.40M traded so far.
The leading outcome, June 30, 2027, is priced at 40.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.0 pts; past week: -18.5 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, June 30, 2027 has traded between 28.5% and 62.5%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 40.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 43.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 37.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 40.5% |
June 30, 2027 is favored at 40.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 40¢ | 40.5% | +3.0 pts | $157.5K | 3.6% |
| December 31 | 20¢ | 20.5% | +2.0 pts | $1.13M | 25.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 40¢ / ask 41¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$4.40M has been traded on this event in total, $11.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 15,466 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 15,466 | $6.3K |
| Opulent-Right | No | 12,020 | $7.2K |
| Natural-Vacation | No | 3,745 | $2.2K |
| Playful-Circulation | Yes | 2,222 | $900 |
| Weighty-Buffer | No | 2,115 | $1.3K |
| Giving-Petticoat | No | 2,035 | $1.2K |
| Splendid-Collection | Yes | 2,000 | $810 |
| Unused-Vivo | No | 1,808 | $1.1K |
| Alarming-Singer | No | 1,774 | $1.1K |
| Barren-Submitter-Analogue | Yes | 1,588 | $643 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 80.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 05:23 PM ET | No | SELL | 79.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $1.4K |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $57 |
| Oct 24, 04:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 12:50 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $17 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 81.0% | $4.1K |
| Oct 24, 07:48 AM ET | No | SELL | 59.0% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is June 30, 2027 at 40.5%. Next is December 31 at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-samuel-alito-announce-his-retirement-by?via=bro
$4.40M in total volume, with $11.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
June 30, 2027, priced at 40.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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