As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 97.0% in Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? — $5.31M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 97.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +0.1 pts; past month: -0.3 pts.
Since January 09, 2026, No has traded between 88.1% and 97.2%. It opened at 95.5% and last traded at 97.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.0% |
No is favored at 97.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 97¢ | 97.0% | — | $5.31M | 100.0% |
| Yes | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $5.31M | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 3¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.31M has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
Resolution source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 340,000 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frightened-Trouble | No | 340,000 | $329.6K |
| Admired-Omission | Yes | 299,589 | $9.1K |
| Whirlwind-Impact | Yes | 283,847 | $8.7K |
| Motherly-Licence | Yes | 197,837 | $6.0K |
| Worthless-Medium | Yes | 177,973 | $5.4K |
| Loose-Teenager | Yes | 155,865 | $4.8K |
| Serene-Decision | No | 127,519 | $123.6K |
| Decent-Antling | Yes | 97,413 | $3.0K |
| Flashy-Label | No | 77,039 | $74.7K |
| Pleasant-Councilor | No | 62,460 | $60.6K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 08:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $1,000 |
| Oct 24, 07:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $194 |
| Oct 24, 05:39 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 05:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 05:10 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 05:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 03:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 05:19 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.0% | $194 |
| Oct 23, 02:43 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 01:55 PM ET | No | SELL | 96.9% | $291 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 97.0%. Next is Yes at 3.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2026?via=bro
$5.31M in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto.
No, priced at 97.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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