As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 10+ at 19.5% in Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31? — $5.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 10+, is priced at 19.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 10+ has traded between 19.5% and 58.5%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 19.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 22.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 23.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 20.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 19.5% |
10+ is favored at 19.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | 20¢ | 19.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.4K | 24.1% |
| 20+ | 9¢ | 9.0% | +1.5 pts | $1.6K | 28.3% |
| 50+ | 6¢ | 5.5% | -0.6 pts | $733 | 12.7% |
| 30+ | 5¢ | 5.1% | -0.1 pts | $685 | 11.8% |
| 40+ | 3¢ | 3.5% | -0.1 pts | $1.3K | 23.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 394 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bad-Fool-Enrollment | Yes | 394 | $77 |
| Knotty-Leverage | No | 350 | $282 |
| Webbed-Edible | No | 255 | $205 |
| Judicious-Lunchmeat | Yes | 129 | $25 |
| Prickly-Passport | Yes | 71 | $14 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 71 | $14 |
| Nutty-Handle | No | 67 | $54 |
| Expensive-Arrow-Nightclub | No | 38 | $30 |
| Severe-Warden | Yes | 33 | $7 |
| Enormous-Quartet | Yes | 18 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 07:30 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 20, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $10 |
| Oct 20, 07:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 15.0% | $0 |
| Oct 20, 06:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
| Oct 20, 06:52 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $8 |
| Oct 20, 06:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $44 |
| Oct 19, 10:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 19, 01:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $2 |
| Oct 18, 04:04 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.8% | $0 |
| Oct 18, 04:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.5% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 10+ at 19.5%. Next is 20+ at 9.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31?via=bro
$5.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
10+, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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