Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:22 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 10+ at 19.5% in Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31? — $5.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $0.
Leading outcome
10+
20%
A 19.5% price implies roughly a 20-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −0.5 pts7D −2.5 pts
10+19.5%
20+9.0%
Bid
9¢
Ask
30¢
Spread
21¢
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Range since October 01, 2026: 19.5% – 58.5% · Opened at 43.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?
Category
Oil, Iran, Trump, Hormuz, Geopolitics, Strait of Hormuz
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$5.8K
Volume (24h)
$0
Liquidity
$29.3K
Markets
5
Leading outcome
10+ — 19.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 10+, is priced at 19.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts.

Since October 01, 2026, 10+ has traded between 19.5% and 58.5%. It opened at 43.5% and last traded at 19.5%.

DayClose
Oct 17, 202622.0%
Oct 18, 202622.0%
Oct 19, 202623.5%
Oct 20, 202628.5%
Oct 22, 202629.0%
Oct 23, 202620.0%
Oct 24, 202619.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

10+ is favored at 19.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
10+20¢19.5%-0.5 pts$1.4K24.1%
20+9¢9.0%+1.5 pts$1.6K28.3%
50+6¢5.5%-0.6 pts$73312.7%
30+5¢5.1%-0.1 pts$68511.8%
40+3¢3.5%-0.1 pts$1.3K23.1%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 21¢ (bid 9¢ / ask 30¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$5.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 5 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 394 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Bad-Fool-EnrollmentYes394$77
Knotty-LeverageNo350$282
Webbed-EdibleNo255$205
Judicious-LunchmeatYes129$25
Prickly-PassportYes71$14
Belated-GlueYes71$14
Nutty-HandleNo67$54
Expensive-Arrow-NightclubNo38$30
Severe-WardenYes33$7
Enormous-QuartetYes18$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $293 at 98.0%BUY No — $160 at 74.2%BUY No — $124 at 91.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 07:30 AM ETYesSELL6.0%$2
Oct 20, 05:30 PM ETYesBUY30.0%$10
Oct 20, 07:10 AM ETYesSELL15.0%$0
Oct 20, 06:52 AM ETNoBUY65.0%$3
Oct 20, 06:52 AM ETNoBUY65.0%$8
Oct 20, 06:49 AM ETYesBUY34.0%$44
Oct 19, 10:52 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$2
Oct 19, 01:56 AM ETYesBUY4.5%$2
Oct 18, 04:04 PM ETYesSELL1.8%$0
Oct 18, 04:04 PM ETNoSELL95.5%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 10+ at 19.5%. Next is 20+ at 9.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-october-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31??

$5.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 5 markets.

When does Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by October 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

10+, priced at 19.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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