Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? — $9.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $94.
Leading outcome
No
86%
A 86.5% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +3.0 pts30D +0.5 pts
No86.5%
Yes13.5%
Bid
13¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
1¢
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Range since June 26, 2026: 67.5% – 89.5% · Opened at 67.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?
Category
Politics, transgender, United States
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.8K
Volume (24h)
$94
Liquidity
$10.6K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 86.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.

Since June 26, 2026, No has traded between 67.5% and 89.5%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 86.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202689.5%
Oct 17, 202689.5%
Oct 18, 202689.5%
Oct 19, 202689.5%
Oct 20, 202689.0%
Oct 22, 202689.0%
Oct 23, 202686.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 86.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No86¢86.5%—$9.8K100.0%
Yes14¢13.5%—$9.8K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $94 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Smith College is an all-women's college in Massachusetts that is currently undergoing a federal civil rights investigation for its policies relating to transgender women. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Smith College changes its policies to exclude the future admission of or to unenroll current students who were born male and identify as transgender women from its Northampton campus by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The existence of or potential for individualized waivers from a general policy shall not be sufficient to prevent this market from resolving to "Yes". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the policy goes into effect. An announcement that prohibits transgender women from enrolling at its campus in Northampton, Massachusetts will count, even if it includes provisions allowing transgender women to enroll at satellite locations or remotely. The resolution source will be official statements from Smith College or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,259 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Kaleidoscopic-HemisphereYes1,259$170
Weird-FreedomNo800$692
Meaty-LocketNo568$492
Evil-RowYes208$28
Belated-GlueYes189$26
Qualified-Formal-DioxideNo137$119
Unfit-HardboardNo82$71
0xc24fa1e0…No68$59
Puzzling-HaversackYes30$4
Sunny-CaramelNo30$26

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $184 at 90.0%BUY No — $147 at 88.0%BUY No — $100 at 84.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:25 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$13
Oct 23, 02:26 PM ETYesSELL13.0%$4
Oct 23, 02:25 PM ETYesBUY14.0%$1
Oct 02, 01:42 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$50
Oct 02, 01:42 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$184
Oct 02, 01:42 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$43
Sep 24, 05:35 AM ETYesSELL12.0%$5
Sep 20, 08:35 PM ETYesSELL12.0%$10
Sep 18, 05:09 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$0
Sep 18, 05:00 PM ETNoBUY88.0%$147

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-smith-college-exclude-trans-women-in-2026-20260626143843566?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026??

$9.8K in total volume, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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