As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.5% in Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? — $9.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since June 26, 2026, No has traded between 67.5% and 89.5%. It opened at 67.5% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.5% |
No is favored at 86.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 86¢ | 86.5% | — | $9.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 14¢ | 13.5% | — | $9.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 14¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$9.8K has been traded on this event in total, $94 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Smith College is an all-women's college in Massachusetts that is currently undergoing a federal civil rights investigation for its policies relating to transgender women. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Smith College changes its policies to exclude the future admission of or to unenroll current students who were born male and identify as transgender women from its Northampton campus by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." The existence of or potential for individualized waivers from a general policy shall not be sufficient to prevent this market from resolving to "Yes". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the policy goes into effect. An announcement that prohibits transgender women from enrolling at its campus in Northampton, Massachusetts will count, even if it includes provisions allowing transgender women to enroll at satellite locations or remotely. The resolution source will be official statements from Smith College or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,259 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaleidoscopic-Hemisphere | Yes | 1,259 | $170 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 800 | $692 |
| Meaty-Locket | No | 568 | $492 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 208 | $28 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 189 | $26 |
| Qualified-Formal-Dioxide | No | 137 | $119 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | No | 82 | $71 |
| 0xc24fa1e0… | No | 68 | $59 |
| Puzzling-Haversack | Yes | 30 | $4 |
| Sunny-Caramel | No | 30 | $26 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 02:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 13.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 02:25 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 02, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $50 |
| Oct 02, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $184 |
| Oct 02, 01:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $43 |
| Sep 24, 05:35 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $5 |
| Sep 20, 08:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $10 |
| Sep 18, 05:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $0 |
| Sep 18, 05:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 88.0% | $147 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.5%. Next is Yes at 13.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-smith-college-exclude-trans-women-in-2026-20260626143843566?via=bro
$9.8K in total volume, with $94 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 86.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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