As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 85.0% in Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? — $10.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 85.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: +2.0 pts.
Since June 30, 2026, No has traded between 74.5% and 89.0%. It opened at 76.5% and last traded at 86.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 85.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 86.5% |
No is favored at 85.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 85¢ | 85.0% | -1.5 pts | $10.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 15¢ | 15.0% | +1.5 pts | $10.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 11¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.2K has been traded on this event in total, $235 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,261 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tepid-Catsup | No | 1,261 | $1.1K |
| Tight-Salsa | Yes | 1,000 | $150 |
| Low-Jug | No | 574 | $488 |
| Improbable-Classmate | Yes | 437 | $66 |
| Whopping-Chalice | Yes | 376 | $56 |
| Quixotic-Tail | No | 247 | $210 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 238 | $36 |
| Pristine-Decoration | No | 150 | $128 |
| Somber-Grit | Yes | 132 | $20 |
| Impressionable-Toll-Shoe | No | 121 | $103 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:43 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $22 |
| Oct 23, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 02:41 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:13 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 02:18 AM ET | No | SELL | 83.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 12:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 84.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 11:44 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $5 |
| Oct 21, 09:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 09:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $31 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 85.0%. Next is Yes at 15.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-launch-robotaxis-in-california-by-december-31-20260630142749586?via=bro
$10.2K in total volume, with $235 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 85.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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