As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 7.8% in Will Tesla release Optimus by...? — $137.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 7.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.9 pts; past week: -4.4 pts; past month: -4.9 pts.
Since January 22, 2026, December 31 has traded between 2.9% and 33.0%. It opened at 22.5% and last traded at 10.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 12.3% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 12.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 12.2% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 10.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 10.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 11.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 10.8% |
December 31 is favored at 7.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8¢ | 7.8% | -2.9 pts | $41.4K | 30.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 8¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$137.9K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Resolution source: ..
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,356 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scientific-Sophomore | No | 3,356 | $3.1K |
| Polite-Wingtip | Yes | 1,970 | $154 |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 916 | $71 |
| Trained-Sniffle | No | 900 | $830 |
| Distant-Pray | Yes | 758 | $59 |
| Delayed-Seashore | Yes | 530 | $41 |
| Rare-Handholding | Yes | 431 | $34 |
| Clumsy-Sleet | No | 415 | $382 |
| 0x8c072385… | Yes | 382 | $30 |
| Costly-Hoof | No | 350 | $323 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.7% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.6% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.6% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.9% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 05:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.4% | $47 |
| Oct 24, 05:46 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.1% | $52 |
| Oct 24, 05:43 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 03:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.3% | $40 |
| Oct 23, 01:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 10.1% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 07:32 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.6% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 7.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-release-optimus-by-june-30-2026?via=bro
$137.9K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on ...
December 31, priced at 7.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.