Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 86.0% in Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? — $65.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $85.
Leading outcome
No
86%
A 86.0% price implies roughly a 86-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +3.5 pts30D −2.5 pts
No86.0%
Yes14.0%
Bid
13¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
2¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since February 18, 2026: 58.5% – 89.5% · Opened at 71.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?
Category
Tech, Elon, Elon Musk, Big Tech, AI, bet, KPIs
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$65.8K
Volume (24h)
$85
Liquidity
$2.2K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
No — 86.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No, is priced at 86.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -2.5 pts.

Since February 18, 2026, No has traded between 58.5% and 89.5%. It opened at 71.0% and last traded at 86.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202678.0%
Oct 15, 202678.0%
Oct 16, 202679.0%
Oct 18, 202686.5%
Oct 19, 202687.0%
Oct 20, 202686.5%
Oct 24, 202686.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No is favored at 86.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No86¢86.0%—$65.8K100.0%
Yes14¢14.0%—$65.8K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 15¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$65.8K has been traded on this event in total, $85 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” “Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model. A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify. The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price. Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs. The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,311 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Stimulating-DescendantYes3,311$463
Tepid-CatsupNo3,286$2.8K
Esteemed-EmphasisNo2,384$2.1K
Narrow-PhotodiodeYes2,292$321
Clumsy-SleetNo2,091$1.8K
Regular-MoleculeYes2,063$289
Polite-WingtipYes2,015$282
Monumental-UnionNo1,633$1.4K
Whispered-RecipeNo1,500$1.3K
Gregarious-EelNo1,275$1.1K

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $2.0K at 84.1%BUY No — $137 at 79.3%SELL No — $110 at 75.5%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:37 PM ETNoSELL83.0%$8
Oct 24, 02:16 PM ETYesBUY16.0%$3
Oct 24, 02:16 PM ETNoSELL84.8%$46
Oct 22, 08:25 PM ETYesSELL10.0%$0
Oct 22, 10:16 AM ETYesBUY11.0%$1
Oct 21, 11:44 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$2
Oct 21, 06:20 AM ETYesBUY12.0%$1
Oct 20, 06:42 AM ETNoBUY88.0%$2
Oct 18, 01:41 PM ETYesBUY13.0%$7
Oct 18, 09:25 AM ETNoBUY89.0%$18

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 86.0%. Next is Yes at 14.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-tesla-sell-a-cybercab-for-30k-or-less-in-2026?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026??

$65.8K in total volume, with $85 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?, according to Polymarket traders?

No, priced at 86.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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