As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price ↑ 7.50% at 69.5% in Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026? — $104.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, ↑ 7.50%, is priced at 69.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts; past month: +25.0 pts.
Since August 03, 2026, ↑ 7.50% has traded between 10.5% and 76.5%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 72.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 58.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 75.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.0% |
↑ 7.50% is favored at 69.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 7.50% | 70¢ | 69.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.3K | 2.1% |
| ↓ 6.50% | 36¢ | 36.0% | +6.0 pts | $13.2K | 12.5% |
| ↓ 6.25% | 33¢ | 33.0% | — | $3.9K | 3.7% |
| ↓ 6.00% | 6¢ | 6.0% | -2.0 pts | $4.2K | 4.0% |
| ↓ 5.90% | 3¢ | 3.1% | -0.2 pts | $11.6K | 11.1% |
| ↓ 5.50% | 2¢ | 2.2% | — | $3.4K | 3.2% |
| ↓ 5.70% | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $12.6K | 12.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 23¢ (bid 58¢ / ask 81¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$104.9K has been traded on this event in total, $461 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending after market creation and on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or beyond (equal to or above for ↑ HIGH rates, equal to or below for ↓ LOW rates) the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or beyond the listed rate for a qualifying week, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.
Resolution source: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 256 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Teeming-Puppet | Yes | 256 | $178 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 159 | $49 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 60 | $18 |
| Amazing-Antelope-Shakedown | No | 55 | $17 |
| Soulful-Remains-Chorus | Yes | 20 | $14 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | Yes | 20 | $14 |
| Remarkable-Underpass | Yes | 20 | $14 |
| Known-Use | No | 20 | $6 |
| Embarrassed-Hill-Fold | No | 20 | $6 |
| Arid-Pagoda | Yes | 16 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 36.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 12:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 08:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 08:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:55 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.6% | $82 |
| Oct 24, 06:39 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 32.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 06:38 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 06:37 AM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 05:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $30 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is ↑ 7.50% at 69.5%. Next is ↓ 6.50% at 36.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-30-year-mortgage-rate-hit-in-2026?via=bro
$104.9K in total volume, with $461 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms.
↑ 7.50%, priced at 69.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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